![]() ![]() In dealing with the climate crisis, it simply is not enough to consider what is likely to happen – it is even more important to understand what the risks are. I co-authored the survey (see also 7-minute video about it) with Ben Horton and others, as well as a predecessor survey published in 2014, and I am happy to see that the IPCC now includes this type of expert judgement to assess risks that can’t yet be modelled reliably, but cannot be just ignored either. For estimating this uncertainty they use an expert survey as well as a smaller but more detailed structured expert judgement. Note that this uncertainty goes to one side: up. In a low-likelihood, high-impact storyline and a high CO2 emissions scenario, such processes could in combination contribute more than one additional meter of sea level rise by 2100. Higher amounts of global mean sea level rise before 2100 could be caused by earlier-than-projected disintegration of marine ice shelves, the abrupt, widespread onset of Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) and Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) around Antarctica, and faster-than-projected changes in the surface mass balance and dynamical ice loss from Greenland. ![]() Importantly, likely range projections do not include those ice-sheet-related processes whose quantification is highly uncertain or that are characterized by deep uncertainty. That's incorrect, IPCC has an increase of 1 meter by 2100, 2 or more in higher emissions scenarios The prediction for a loss of Thwaites is up to 30 cm in 10 years if it collapsesīy 2100 it's only supposed to rise like a foot and a half total. But centuries of abuse, we have set up dozens of feedback loops which will be impossible to stop. These are immense systems, not easily altered. We need to wake up and try to save what we can. The entire planet, in every direction, from boreal forests, to the Amazon, to the entire Pacific Ocean predicted to be unable to hold enough dissolved oxygen to support O2 breathing life within ten years, to the Arctic, …mass die offs of sea birds as they starve, marine mammals too. The head scientist at NASAs Langley reasearch center, said of the earths entire planetary ecosystem, “ it’s collapsing”. It’s happening now, has happened, and ppl still talk about maybe it’s just leftist propaganda. It’s amaziing/ heartbreaking how fast a reef system can collapse. Then as of three years ago, they were all dead and covered in brown algae. Just 15 yrs ago all the coral reefs inshore where I swam a lot were alive and beautiful off Pahoa Hawaii. I'm just trying to separate fact from fiction and am interested in what's actually going on. A journalist saying "happen rapidly" is unclear, inexact language. Importantly, the original comment to this post mistakenly claimed the glacier was expected to break off within a decade (and raise sea levels by 1/2 a meter) because they confused it with the shelf.ĭo you have a scientific source that gives a timeline sooner than "centuries"? Because the only information I've found says centuries. In a worst case, this part of Thwaites could triple in speed, increasing the glacier’s contribution to global sea level in the short term to 5%, Pettit says. Once the ice shelf shatters, large sections of the glacier now restrained by it are likely to speed up, says Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and a leader of the Thwaites expedition. ![]() The article I linked to also mentions an increase in flows yet still gives the centuries timeline. Untimed bans may be lifted when the moderators are confident that you will not continue to infringe on the community rules. Violation of our rules may result in a ban from this subreddit. See the wiki for details on each rule Disallowed comments Blogspam (if stolen content/direct copy).See all of our AMA events here Worldnews Rules Disallowed submissions r/worldnews is for major news from around the world except US-internal news / US politics ![]()
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